January EV Report

January 28, 2022

The following EV Report was written and contributed by SGIN Member: Andrew McPherson (abmcpherson@gmail.com)

MANUFACTURERS UPDATE

  • Tesla: Despite supply chain issues affecting the entire auto industry, Tesla delivered a record 936,172 vehicles in 2021, up from 499,500 in 2020. (Green Car Reports 1/4/22)
  • Chrysler announced that its entire lineup will be all electric by 2028 ( Green Car Reports 1/5/22)
  • Rivian announced their plans to build a second factory in Georgia with construction scheduled to begin in summer of 2022. The $5B factory will employ more than 7500 workers and have an annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles. (Green car Reports 12/17/21) (Rivian is a newly formed all electric manufacturer focusing on the light truck market).
  • Toyota announced their plans to build 30 EVs across its main Toyota and Lexus luxury brand by 2030. Toyota forecasts that they will sell 3.5 million EVs annually by 2030. (Green Car Reports 12/15/21)
  • Nissan unveiled an ambitious plan to launch nearly 2 dozen EVs and hybrids and invest in solid state batteries by 2030. Their new plan called, Nissan Ambition, calls for 23 electrified models for Nissan and Infiniti brands globally. Nissan states they plan to be carbon neutral by 2050 and will be investing $17.6B over the next 5 years to move towards the accomplishment of this goal. (Green Car Reports 11/29/21).

(For further information, Green Car Reports and Bloomberg’s HyperDrive are available online free at greencarreports.com and bloombergbusiness.com)

TRENDS

Electric cars may be nearing a tipping point for mass adoption in the United States, according to a new Ipsos study. Interest in EVs has tripled since 2018, with over a third of U.S. consumers now willing to consider an EV, according to the study. That increased interest is happening at the perfect time, as rising gas prices could fuel more serious consideration of EVs, Ipsos noted.

Other factors could help as well. Automakers are launching a larger number of models, with many, such as the 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning, competing in the most popular new-vehicle segments. Analysts also anticipate that plans to expand incentives and charging infrastructure included in pending federal legislation will help boost adoption. Range anxiety issues, long considered a major barrier to purchase of an EV is becoming less of an issue as manufacturers are bringing new cars into the marketplace with ranges in the 250-300 mile area. Mercedes just set a record with a prototype EV capable of over 600 miles of range.

Sales of alternative energy vehicles in China are forecasted to reach 3 million units by the end of 2021, more than double the numbers of 2020. (Bloomberg 12/20/21). Closer to home, a recent survey conducted by Narrative Research of Halifax found that 42% of Atlantic Canadians buying a new or used vehicle in 2022 are considering an EV.( Huddle 12/23/21)

  • Hyundai recently unveiled a coordinated home energy ecosystem handling EV charging, solar and home energy storage. Dubbed Hyundai Home, the service will provide one stop shopping for these products to Hyundai customers and is scheduled to launch in limited markets in 2022. (Green Car Reports 11/29/21). Hyundai is also in partnership with Shell to expand the hydrogen infrastructure in California. “Project Neptune” calls for the construction of 48 new hydrogen stations starting in 20222. (Green Car reports 10/12/21)
  • Audi recently unveiled a new way to add urban charging options, based on modular hubs that include charging stations and airport like lounges. Target market is for those who cannot charge at home. A pilot charging hub is scheduled to open in Nuremberg December 2023. (Green Car Reports 12/30/21.)
  • Massless Structural Batteries: As a way to reduce weight in battery EVs is to force the batteries to multitask by serving as part of the vehicle’s structure. For example, raw, uncoated carbon-fibre strands are great electrical conductors and because they typically include tiny voids that can easily accept lithium ions, they function well as a battery’s negative electrode and by applying a lithium-iron phosphate/graphene coating to said fibres creates a structural cathode. Early studies indicate that such technology could lower body mass by as much as 26% and boost range by 20%(Tesla Model S). Cost estimates for this new technology are not yet available. (Motor Trend 1/8/22).
NOTEWORTHY

While not a strictly EV story it does point out that infrastructure, climate change and the drive for net zero issues are at odds with each other.

Rapid economic recovery is driving global coal power generation to a record this year and overall coal demand to a potential all-time high as soon as 2022 according to the International Energy Agency in its latest annual market report.
After falling in 2019 and 2020, global power generation from coal is expected to jump by 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours, according to the IEA’s Coal 2021 report, which was released today. The rebound is being driven by this year’s rapid economic recovery, which has pushed up electricity demand much faster than low-carbon supplies can keep up. The steep rise in natural gas prices has also increased demand for coal power by making it more cost-competitive.

“Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year’s historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions – in a way that is fair, affordable and secure for those affected – we will have little chance, if any at all, of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.”

In China, where more than half of global coal-fired electricity generation takes place, coal power is expected to grow by 9% in 2021 despite a deceleration at the end of the year. In India, it is forecast to grow by 12%. This would set new all-time highs in both countries, even as they roll out impressive amounts of solar and wind capacity. While coal power generation is set to increase by almost 20% this year in the United States and the European Union, that is not enough to take it above 2019 levels. Coal use in those two markets is expected to go back into decline next year amid slow electricity demand growth and rapid expansion of renewable power.

“The pledges to reach net zero emissions made by many countries, including China and India, should have very strong implications for coal – but these are not yet visible in our near-term forecast, reflecting the major gap between ambitions and action,” said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA. “Asia dominates the global coal market, with China and India accounting for two-thirds of overall demand. These two economies – dependent on coal and with a combined population of almost 3 billion people – hold the key to future coal demand.” ( Zero Hedge IEA’s Coal Report of 2021)

If you would like to share any informative articles or reports, please submit to Jenn Bowes (jenn@sgin.ca)